Foreign exchange and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 25 – 29, 2023 – Analytics & Forecasts – 23 September 2023
EUR/USD: Verbal Interventions by the Federal Reserve Help the Greenback
● In earlier evaluations, we extensively mentioned the verbal interventions made by Japanese officers who intention to bolster the yen by way of their public statements. This time, comparable actions have been taken by FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) officers, led by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. At their assembly on September twentieth, the FOMC determined to take care of the rate of interest at 5.50%. This was largely anticipated, as futures markets had indicated a 99% chance of such an final result. Nonetheless, within the subsequent press convention, Mr. Powell indicated that the battle in opposition to inflation is much from over, and that the two.0% goal is probably not achieved till 2026. Subsequently, one other charge hike of 25 foundation factors may be very a lot within the playing cards. In line with the Fed Chairman, there isn’t a recession on the horizon, and the U.S. economic system is sufficiently sturdy to maintain such excessive borrowing prices for an prolonged interval. Moreover, it was revealed that 12 out of 19 FOMC members anticipate a charge hike to five.75% inside this yr. In line with the Committee’s financial forecast, this charge degree is predicted to persist for fairly a while. Particularly, the up to date forecast means that the speed might solely be lowered to five.1% a yr from now (versus the beforehand acknowledged 4.6%), and a lower to three.9% is predicted in a two-year outlook (revised from 3.4%).
● Market contributors have blended beliefs about these prospects, however the reality stays that the hawkish assertions from officers have bolstered the greenback, regardless of the absence of tangible actions. It is attainable that the Federal Reserve has discovered from the errors of their European Central Financial institution (ECB) counterparts, who’ve led market gamers to consider that the financial tightening cycle within the Eurozone has concluded. As a reminder, ECB President Christine Lagarde made it clear that she considers the present rate of interest degree to be acceptable, whereas the Governor of the Financial institution of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, acknowledged that, in his opinion, rates of interest have peaked, and the subsequent transfer will seemingly be a discount. An analogous sentiment: that the September act of financial tightening was the final, was additionally expressed by Stournaras’s colleague, Boris Vujčić, the Governor of the Nationwide Financial institution of Croatia.
● On account of the Federal Reserve’s verbal intervention, the Greenback Index (DXY) soared from 104.35 to 105.37 inside only a few hours, whereas EUR/USD declined to a degree of 1.0616. Economists at Oversea-Chinese language Banking Company (OCBC) consider that, given the Fed’s choice to retain flexibility regarding one other charge hike, it’s not advisable to anticipate a dovish flip within the foreseeable future.
Danske Financial institution strategists opine that “the Fed was as hawkish because it might be with out truly elevating charges.” Nonetheless, they contend that “regardless of the continued strengthening of the greenback, there could also be some upside potential for EUR/USD within the close to time period.” Danske Financial institution additional states, “We consider that peak charges, enhancements within the manufacturing sector in comparison with the service sector, and/or a discount in pessimism in direction of China might help EUR/USD over the subsequent month. Nonetheless, in the long run, we preserve our strategic place favouring a decline in EUR/USD, anticipating a breakthrough beneath 1.0300 inside the subsequent 12 months.”
● Knowledge on U.S. enterprise exercise launched on Friday, September 22, offered a blended image. The Manufacturing PMI index rose to 48.9, whereas the Companies PMI declined to 50.2. Consequently, the Composite PMI remained above the 50.0 threshold however confirmed a slight dip, transferring from 50.2 to 50.1.
Following the PMI launch, EUR/USD concluded the week at 1.0645. Seventy p.c of consultants favoured additional strengthening of the greenback, whereas 30% voted for an uptrend within the forex pair. By way of technical evaluation, not a lot has modified over the almost accomplished week. All pattern indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe are nonetheless unanimously supporting the American forex and are colored crimson. Nonetheless, 15% of them are signalling the pair’s oversold situation. The closest help ranges for the pair lie within the 1.0620-1.0630 vary, adopted by 1.0490-1.0525, 1.0370, and 1.0255. Resistance ranges might be encountered within the 1.0670-1.0700 zone, then at 1.0745-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, and 1.1045.
● As for the upcoming week’s occasions, Tuesday, September 26 will see the discharge of U.S. actual property market information, adopted by sturdy items orders within the U.S. on Wednesday. Thursday, September 28 guarantees to be a busy day. Preliminary inflation (CPI) information from Germany in addition to U.S. GDP figures for Q2 might be disclosed. Moreover, the customary U.S. labour market statistics might be launched, and the day will conclude with remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. On Friday, we will additionally anticipate a slew of great macroeconomic information, together with the Eurozone’s preliminary Client Value Index (CPI) and knowledge relating to private consumption in america.
GBP/USD: BoE Withdraws Help for the Pound
● The monetary world does not revolve across the Federal Reserve’s selections alone. Final week, the Financial institution of England (BoE) additionally made its voice heard. On Thursday, September 21, the BoE’s Financial Coverage Committee left the rate of interest for the pound unchanged at 5.25%. Whereas an identical choice by the Federal Reserve was anticipated, the BoE’s transfer got here as a shock to market contributors. That they had anticipated a 25 foundation level improve, which didn’t materialize. In consequence, the strengthening greenback and weakening pound drove GBP/USD all the way down to 1.2230.
● The BoE’s choice was seemingly influenced by encouraging inflation information for the UK printed the day earlier than. The annual Client Value Index (CPI) truly declined to six.7%, in comparison with the earlier 6.8% and a forecast of seven.1%. The core CPI additionally fell from 6.9% to six.2%, in opposition to a forecast of 6.8%. Given such information, the choice to pause and never burden an already struggling economic system seems affordable. This rationale is additional supported by the UK’s preliminary Companies Buying Managers’ Index (PMI) for September, which hit a 32-month low at 47.2, in comparison with 49.5 in August and a forecast of 49.2. The Manufacturing PMI was additionally reported at 44.2, considerably beneath the essential degree of fifty.0.
In line with economists at S&P International Market Intelligence, these “disheartening PMI outcomes recommend {that a} recession in the UK is turning into more and more seemingly. […] The sharp decline in manufacturing volumes indicated by the PMI information corresponds to a GDP contraction of greater than 0.4% on a quarterly foundation, and the broad-based downturn is gaining momentum with no instant prospects for enchancment.”.
● Analysts at one of many largest banks in america, Wells Fargo, consider that the BoE’s choice indicators a lack of rate-based help for the British pound. In line with their forecast, the present charge of 5.25% will mark the height of the cycle, adopted by a gradual decline to three.25% by the top of 2024. Consequently, they argue that “on this context, a motion of the pound to 1.2000 or decrease is just not out of the query.”
Their counterparts at Scotiabank share an identical sentiment. New lows and powerful bearish indicators on the oscillator for short-term, medium-term, and long-term developments point out an elevated danger of the pound dropping to 1.2100-1.2200.
Economists at Germany’s Commerzbank don’t rule out the potential for a slight restoration for the pound if inflation outlooks considerably enhance. They consider that the Financial institution of England has left the door open for an additional charge hike. The vote for sustaining the present charge was surprisingly shut at 5:4, which means 4 members of the Financial Coverage Committee voted in favour of a 25 foundation level improve. This underscores the excessive degree of uncertainty. However, as a result of weak spot within the UK economic system, the outlook for the pound stays bearish.
● GBP/USD closed the previous week at 1.2237. Analyst opinions on the pair’s instant future are evenly break up: 50% anticipate additional downward motion, whereas the opposite 50% anticipate a correction to the upside. All pattern indicators and oscillators on the D1 chart are colored in crimson; furthermore, 40% of those oscillators are within the oversold zone, which is a powerful sign for a possible pattern reversal.
If the pair continues its downward trajectory, it’s going to encounter help ranges and zones at 1.2190-1.2210, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. However, if the pair rises, it’s going to face resistance at 1.2325, 1.2440-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2550-1.2575, 1.2600-1.2615, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, and 1.2800-1.2815.
● By way of financial occasions impacting the UK for the upcoming week, the spotlight would be the launch of the nation’s GDP information for Q2, scheduled for Friday, September 29.
USD/JPY: Lacklustre Assembly on the Financial institution of Japan
● Following their counterparts on the Federal Reserve and the Financial institution of England, the Financial institution of Japan (BoJ) held its assembly on Friday, September 22. “It was a lacklustre assembly,” commented economists at TD Securities. “All members unanimously voted to maintain coverage unchanged. The assertion was largely just like the one issued in July, and no adjustments have been made to the ahead steering.” The important thing rate of interest remained on the unfavorable degree of -0.1%.
● The next press convention led by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda additionally dissatisfied yen bulls. Ueda didn’t communicate in opposition to the weakening of the nationwide forex; as a substitute, he reiterated that the trade charge ought to replicate basic indicators and stay secure. The central financial institution’s head additionally famous that the regulator “might contemplate the potential for ending yield curve management and altering the unfavorable rate of interest coverage after we are assured that reaching the two% inflation goal is close to.”
Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki’s speech was additionally a typical type of verbal intervention for him. “We’re intently monitoring forex trade charges with a excessive sense of urgency and immediacy,” the minister declared, “and we don’t rule out any choices for responding to extreme volatility.” He added that final yr’s forex intervention had its supposed impact however didn’t point out whether or not comparable steps might be anticipated within the close to future.
● Ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds and the USD/JPY forex pair are historically immediately correlated. When the yield on the bonds rises, so does the greenback in opposition to the yen. This week, following hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, charges on 10-year Treasuries soared to their highest peak since 2007. This propelled USD/JPY to a brand new excessive of 148.45. In line with economists at TD Securities, contemplating the rise in U.S. yields, the pair might break above 150.00. In the meantime, on the French financial institution Societe Generale, goal ranges of 149.20 and 150.30 are being cited.
● The final word of the five-day buying and selling session sounded on the 148.36 mark. A majority of surveyed consultants (70%) agreed with the views of their colleagues at TD Securities and Societe Generale relating to the additional rise of USD/JPY. A correction to the draw back, and presumably a pointy drop on account of forex interventions, is predicted by 20% of analysts. The remaining 10% took a impartial stance. All 100% of pattern indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe are colored inexperienced, though 10% of the latter are signalling overbought circumstances. The closest help degree is within the 146.85-147.00 zone, adopted by 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.50, 143.75-144.05, 142.20, 140.60-140.75, 138.95-139.05, and 137.25-137.50. The closest resistance is at 148.45, adopted by 148.45, 148.85-149.20, 150.00, and eventually, the October 2022 excessive of 151.90.
● No important financial information associated to the state of the Japanese economic system is scheduled for launch within the upcoming week. Nonetheless, merchants might need to mark Friday, September 29 on their calendars, as shopper inflation information for the Tokyo area might be printed on that day.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Battle for $27,000
● On Monday, September 18, the value of the main cryptocurrency started to soar, pulling your entire digital asset market upward. Apparently, the rationale behind this surge was in a roundabout way associated to bitcoin, however quite to the U.S. greenback. Particularly, it was tied to the Federal Reserve’s selections relating to rates of interest. Excessive greenback charges restrict the circulate of investments into riskier property, together with cryptocurrencies, as giant buyers desire secure returns. On this case, forward of the upcoming Federal Reserve assembly, market contributors have been assured that the regulator wouldn’t solely chorus from elevating charges however would additionally hold them unchanged till year-end. Using on these expectations, BTC/USD surged, reaching a peak of $27,467 on August 19, including greater than 10% since September 11.
Nonetheless, though the speed did certainly stay unchanged, it grew to become clear following the assembly that the combat in opposition to inflation would proceed. Subsequently, any hopes of a shift away from the Fed’s hawkish stance ought to be put aside for now. In consequence, the value of bitcoin reversed course. After breaking by way of the help zone at $27,000, it returned to its beginning positions.
● Regardless of the current pullback, many within the crypto neighborhood stay assured that the digital gold will proceed to rise. As an example, an analyst going by the alias Yoddha believes that bitcoin has an opportunity to refresh its native excessive within the brief time period and attain $50,000 by year-end. After which, he suggests, a correction to $30,000 might happen in early 2024, forward of the halving occasion. Blogger Crypto Rover additionally anticipates that troubles within the U.S. economic system will gasoline BTC’s development. If the pair manages to firmly set up itself above $27,000, he expects the value to maneuver in direction of $32,000.
Analyst DonAlt is of the opinion that bitcoin stands an opportunity to stage a brand new spectacular rally and replace its 2023 excessive. “If we rise and overcome the resistance we’re at present battling,” he writes, “the goal, I consider, might be $36,000. […] I will not rule out lacking an excellent entry at $30,000 as a result of if the value takes off, it could rise too shortly. [But] we’ve got sufficient compelling causes to additionally transfer downward. Within the worst case, I am going to take a minor hit if it plunges into the $19,000 to $20,000 vary.”.
● Dealer and analyst Jason Pizzino believes that bitcoin’s bullish market cycle started forming round January, and this course of continues to be not full regardless of the current worth consolidation. In line with the knowledgeable, bitcoin will verify its bullish sentiment if it crosses a key degree at $28,500. “This market has seldom seen sub-$25,000 ranges. I am not saying it may possibly’t go down, however for six months now, the weekly closings have been above these ranges. Up to now, so good, however we’re not in bull territory but. Bulls have to see closings above $26,550 at the least often,” states Pizzino. “Bulls nonetheless have a lot to do. I am going to begin speaking about them as soon as we cross the white line on the $28,500 degree once more. This is likely one of the key ranges for bitcoin to begin transferring upwards after which attempt to break $32,000.”.
● John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, doesn’t rule out the likelihood that the main crypto asset is getting ready for a breakout. The indicator makes use of the usual deviation from the straightforward transferring common to find out volatility and potential worth ranges for an asset. Presently, BTC/USD is forming every day candles that contact the higher band. This might point out a reversal again to the central band or, conversely, a rise in volatility and upward motion. Slim Bollinger Bands on the charts recommend that the latter situation is extra seemingly. Nonetheless, Bollinger himself feedback cautiously, believing that it’s nonetheless too early to attract definitive conclusions.
● PlanB, the well-known creator of the S2FX mannequin, has reaffirmed his forecast made earlier this yr. He famous that the November 2022 low was the underside for bitcoin, and its ascent will start nearer to the halving occasion. PlanB believes that the 2024 halving will drive the main cryptocurrency as much as $66,000, and the following bull market in 2025 might push its worth above the $100,000 mark.
Investor and best-selling creator of “Wealthy Dad Poor Dad,” Robert Kiyosaki, has excessive hopes for the halving occasion as properly. In line with the knowledgeable, the U.S. economic system is on the verge of a critical disaster, and cryptocurrencies, significantly bitcoin, supply buyers a secure haven throughout these turbulent occasions. Kiyosaki predicts that the value of bitcoin might soar to $120,000 subsequent yr, and the 2024 halving will function a key catalyst for the rally.
● In conclusion, to stability out the optimistic forecasts talked about earlier, let’s introduce some pessimism. In line with in style analyst and host of the DataDash channel, Nicholas Merten, the crypto market might expertise one other downturn. He cites the declining liquidity of stablecoins as an indicator. “It is a good metric for figuring out developments within the cryptocurrency market. As an example, from April 2019 to July 2019, bitcoin rose from $3,500 to $12,000. Throughout the identical interval, the liquidity of stablecoins elevated by 119%. Then we see a interval of consolidation the place liquidity additionally remained at a continuing degree. When bitcoin rose from $3,900 to $65,000 in 2021, the liquidity of stablecoins surged by 2,183%,” the knowledgeable shares his observations.
“Liquidity and worth development are interconnected. If liquidity is declining or consolidating, the market is probably going not going to develop. That is true for each cryptocurrencies and monetary markets. For market capitalization to develop, you want liquidity, however what we’re seeing is a continuing decline in liquidity, which makes a worth drop for cryptocurrencies extra possible,” Nicholas Merten states.
● As of the time of penning this evaluate, Friday night, September 22, BTC/USD is buying and selling round $26,525. The general market capitalization of the crypto market has remained nearly unchanged, standing at $1.053 trillion (in comparison with $1.052 trillion per week in the past). The Bitcoin Crypto Worry & Greed Index has dropped by 2 factors, transferring from 45 to 43, and stays within the ‘Worry’ zone.
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